How the playoff math works
What one game does to West Orange's numbers
- 1The scoreWest Orange34Livingston12Week 3 · Sep 18 · a win by 22
- 2Points for the resultWin 6Tie 3Loss 0quality points = 6
- 3Points for who you beatLivingston's first seven games: 4 wins3 per win when you beat them × 4 = 12Power Points from this game: 6 + 12 = 18
- 4Credit for who you playedOSI credit = 71.82 × 100% = 71.82
- 5Your rating movesexpected +5.7actual +220.2 × (actual +22 − expected +5.7) = +3.25Strength Index 72.74 → 75.99 up +3.25
- 6Season totalsPower Points, average79 ÷ 7 games = 11.29Opponent Strength Index, average378.25 ÷ 7 games = 54.04
- 7The blendOSI rank2 of 24 · weight 60%PP rank4 of 24 · weight 40%UPR = 0.6 × 2 + 0.4 × 4 = 2.8Lower is better → seed 2 of 24
The five numbers
6 per win, 3 per tie, 0 per loss, plus residual points from each opponent's wins, averaged over games played.
Quality: 6 win, 3 tie, 0 loss. Residual: +3 per opponent win (first seven games) if you beat them, +1.5 if you tied, +1 if you lost.
Average of your opponents' SI, credited 100% for a win, 75% for a tie, 50% for a loss.
A rating that starts near last year's and moves 0.2 × (actual margin − expected margin) after each game. Locks after Week 7.
0.6 × OSI rank + 0.4 × PP rank. Lower is better; rank 1 is the top seed.
Who makes it
The top 16 by UPR at the cutoff make the playoffs. Undefeated with 7+ wins outside the 16? You replace #16 Override. Fewer than 2 wins against NJSIAA members? Ranked, but cannot qualify Ineligible. The 16 then split into North 1 and North 2 by geography and each bracket is seeded by UPR.5 Ties: head-to-head, common opponents, OSI rank, PP rank, coin flip.
How the non-public groups are seeded
Non-Public A and B don't qualify by formula. Every school that enters is in, and a committee seeds the bracket. The NJSIAA tells the committee what to weigh, in this order: “The seeding committee will rely primarily on head-to-head results while also considering results against common opponents, and strength of schedule (with specific reference to the non-public multiplier level of opponents and the number of non-public multiplier schools played).”
Our projected seeds follow that order, and every row on the Non-Public standings says which rule put it where it is.
- Head-to-head first. A team sits above every team it beat this season, whatever the ratings say. A split series counts for nothing. If three teams beat each other in a circle, the circle is set aside and the next rules decide.
- Then common opponents. Two teams that haven't met are compared on the opponents both played: the better record against them ranks higher, and a tie there goes to the better combined margin.
- Then Strength Index. Where neither rule separates two teams, the higher Strength Index ranks higher. The Strength Index is the NJSIAA's own rating of margin against opponent strength, so a hard schedule and games against multiplier schools already count in it.
A worked example: St. Joseph (Metuchen), Non-Public A. Their 2026 schedule is seven Big Central public schools, Delbarton and St. Thomas Aquinas. Suppose they finish 9-0 against that slate. Rule 1 places them above only the non-public teams they actually beat, Delbarton, and below none. Against a St. Peter's Prep or a Bergen Catholic they never played, rule 2 looks for common opponents; if there are none, rule 3 ranks them by Strength Index, which a 9-0 run against Big Central teams would lift but not as far as 9-0 against the SFC's United division would. So an unbeaten St. Joe's would sit above Delbarton and otherwise where its Strength Index puts it. As it stands today they are 2-3 with a loss to Delbarton, so rule 1 keeps them below Delbarton and the rest is Strength Index.
Think the committee weighs something differently? Tell us. These are our projections, not the NJSIAA's.
Key dates, 2025
- Week 0
- Aug 28–30
- SI locks (after Week 7)
- Oct 21
- Cutoff — seeds set
- Oct 25
- Round 1
- Oct 31–Nov 1
West Orange's season, game by game (reference table)
| Wk | Opponent | Result | PP | Resid. | Opp SI | Credit | OSI credit | Exp. / act. | SI Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Shabazz | L 7–10 | 0 | 5 (5w) | 78.07 | 50% | 39.04 | +0.0 / −3 | −0.61 |
| 1 | Passaic County Tech | W 32–29 | 6 | 12 (4w) | 79.58 | 100% | 79.58 | +8.1 / +3 | −1.02 |
| 2 | @ Irvington | W 20–19 | 6 | 9 (3w) | 61.45 | 100% | 61.45 | +8.0 / +1 | −1.40 |
| 3 | Livingston | W 34–12 | 6 | 12 (4w) | 71.82 | 100% | 71.82 | +5.7 / +22 | +3.25 |
| 4 | @ Barringer | W 39–0 | 6 | 6 (2w) | 43.83 | 100% | 43.83 | +42.5 / +39 | −0.69 |
| 5 | @ Phillipsburg | L 20–24 | 0 | 5 (5w) | 83.55 | 50% | 41.77 | −17.3 / −4 | +2.66 |
| 6 | Montclair | W 46–7 | 6 | 0 (0w) | 40.76 | 100% | 40.76 | +36.7 / +39 | +0.45 |
| 7 games | 30 | 49 | 378.25 | 78.41 | |||||
Glossary
- PP avgPower Points, average per game
- 6 per win, 3 per tie, 0 per loss, plus residual points from each opponent's wins, averaged over games played.
- Residual pointsPower Points earned: quality + residual
- Quality: 6 win, 3 tie, 0 loss. Residual: +3 per opponent win (first seven games) if you beat them, +1.5 if you tied, +1 if you lost.
- SIStrength Index
- A rating that starts near last year's and moves 0.2 × (actual margin − expected margin) after each game. Locks after Week 7.
- OSI avgOpponent Strength Index
- Average of your opponents' SI, credited 100% for a win, 75% for a tie, 50% for a loss.
- MultiplierOpponent SI × credit for the result
- Opponent SI × 100% for a win, 75% for a tie, 50% for a loss; a public school's loss to a listed non-public school gets 70–80%.
- UPRUnited Power Rank
- 0.6 × OSI rank + 0.4 × PP rank. Lower is better; rank 1 is the top seed.
- Cut lineThe playoff cut
- Top 16 by UPR make the playoffs.
- SeedSeed (our rank by UPR)
- Position in the super section by UPR. Top 16 make the playoffs; the 16 split into North 1 and North 2 by geography.
- StatusPlayoff outlook through this week
- Clinched and Out are proven. Near lock (90%+), In good shape (60–90%), Work to do (30–60%) and In trouble (under 30%) are odds of finishing in the top 16 with 2+ wins, from 20,000 simulated seasons of the remaining schedule. Click a status for the work.
- vs officialOurs minus published
- Our figure minus the published figure, with the sign.
What we know, what we are still verifying
Matches the official table
- Records for every listed team, Weeks 2, 5 and 6
- Power Points for all 24 teams, to the published rounding
- The formulas, checked line by line against the regulations
Still verifying
- OSI: within about 0.5 for most teams; part of the statewide game set is not yet loaded
- Out-of-state opponents: SI is a placeholder until the published values are found
- Ranks that differ from the official table are shown with both numbers
Sources
- 1NJSIAA Football Tournament Regulations, Power Points — Quality and residual points. Regulation text
- 2Strength Index — Starting values, weekly movement, the lock date. Regulation text
- 3Opponent Strength Index — Credit by result and the non-public multiplier. Regulation text
- 4United Power Rank — The 60/40 blend and tie-breakers. Regulation text
- 5Qualification — Top 16, the undefeated provision, eligibility and Northing. Regulation text