Playoff Picture · Through Week 5· Cutoff Oct 24 · 2025 season
North Group 5
28 public schools. The top 16 eligible teams make the playoffs, seeded into two sections of eight. Here is where the race stands if the season ended today.
16 of 28 get in
The field
13locked in
3in good shape
11need help
1eliminated
Cut linePerth Amboy is #16 (84% to make it). Livingston is first out (22%).
Top seedsRamapo (4-2, Section A) · West Orange (5-1, Section B)
EliminatedJP Stevens.
What changedClifton climbed 5 to No. 19. Phillipsburg fell 3 to No. 7. Since Week 4.
If it ended today
First round · higher seed hosts · % = chance to make itSection ANo. 1 overall's side
Ramapo
Perth Amboy
East Orange
Irvington
Bridgewater-Raritan
Ridgewood
Piscataway
BayonneSection BNo. 2 overall's side
West Orange
Bloomfield
Phillipsburg
Union
Passaic Tech
Union City
Elizabeth
PlainfieldFirst round, higher seed hosts. % is the chance to make the playoffs. 2026 seeding snakes the top 16 between the two sections (1, 4, 5, 8… and 2, 3, 6, 7…). Section names come with the NJSIAA alignment lists. The bracket locks after the Oct 24 cutoff.
Games that matter
Week 6No games scheduled.
Games already played show the final score. Win / Lose: each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins or loses this week. Points at stake add up both teams' swings. All Week 6 games →
The race
Chance to make the playoffs · click a chance for whyTap a chance for why| Rank | Team · seed if it ended today | Chance | This week | If they win | If they lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near lock 13 Get in 90% of the time or more. | |||||
| 1 | Ramapo 4-2 A1 | No game this week | – | – | |
| 2 | West Orange 5-1 B1 | No game this week | – | – | |
| 3 | Elizabeth 6-0 B2 | vs Hillsborough | Lock | Lock | |
| 4 | Piscataway 5-1 A2 | vs St. Joseph-Metuchen | Lock | Lock | |
| 5 | Bridgewater-Raritan 5-1 A3 | at Union | Lock | Lock | |
| 6 | Passaic Tech 3-3 B3 | at Union City | Lock | Lock | |
| 7 | Phillipsburg 4-2 B4 | No game this week | – | – | |
| 8 | East Orange 3-2 A4 | at Montclair | Lock | Lock | |
| 9 | Irvington 4-2 A5 | vs Bayonne | Lock | Lock | |
| 10 | Union 5-1 B5 | vs Bridgewater-Raritan | Lock | Lock | |
| 11 | Union City 3-3 B6 | vs Passaic Tech | Lock | 97% | |
| 12 | Ridgewood 3-2 A6 | vs Teaneck | Lock | 98% | |
| 13 | Bayonne 4-2 A7 | at Irvington | Lock | 91% | |
| In good shape 3 Between 60% and 90%. | |||||
| 14 | Plainfield 2-4 B7 | vs Rahway | 99% | 74% | |
| 15 | Bloomfield 3-3 B8 | vs Nutley | 85% | 61% | |
| 15 | Perth Amboy 5-1 A8 | at New Providence | Lock | 80% | |
| In trouble 11 Under 30%: need wins and help. | |||||
| 17 | Livingston 3-3 | vs Barringer | 25% | 7% | |
| 18 | Passaic 2-4 Head-to-head ↑ | at Eastside | 5% | Eliminated | |
| 19 | Clifton 2-3 | vs Orange | 4% | Eliminated | |
| 20 | Linden 2-3 | vs Colonia | 30% | 6% | |
| 21 | Montclair 2-4 | vs East Orange | 30% | 1% | |
| 22 | Westfield 1-5 | at Ridge | 54% | 10% | |
| 23 | Franklin 1-5 | vs Edison | 13% | 2% | |
| 25 | Morristown 0-6 | at Mount Olive | 4% | Eliminated | |
| 26 | Barringer 1-4 | at Livingston | Eliminated | Eliminated | |
| 27 | Columbia 0-6 | at Snyder | Eliminated | Eliminated | |
| 28 | Eastside 2-4 | vs Passaic | Eliminated | Eliminated | |
| Out 1 Can no longer make it, or all but. | |||||
Livingston
Passaic
Clifton
Linden
Montclair
Westfield
Franklin
Morristown
Barringer
Columbia
EastsideNear lock 13 Get in 90% of the time or more.
1Ramapo 4-2 A1No game this week
2West Orange 5-1 B1No game this week
3Elizabeth 6-0 B2vs Hillsborough · Win Lock · Lose Lock
4Piscataway 5-1 A2vs St. Joseph-Metuchen · Win Lock · Lose Lock
5Bridgewater-Raritan 5-1 A3at Union · Win Lock · Lose Lock
6Passaic Tech 3-3 B3at Union City · Win Lock · Lose Lock
7Phillipsburg 4-2 B4No game this week
8East Orange 3-2 A4at Montclair · Win Lock · Lose Lock
9Irvington 4-2 A5vs Bayonne · Win Lock · Lose Lock
10Union 5-1 B5vs Bridgewater-Raritan · Win Lock · Lose Lock
11Union City 3-3 B6vs Passaic Tech · Win Lock · Lose 97%
12Ridgewood 3-2 A6vs Teaneck · Win Lock · Lose 98%
13Bayonne 4-2 A7at Irvington · Win Lock · Lose 91%
In good shape 3 Between 60% and 90%.
14Plainfield 2-4 B7vs Rahway · Win 99% · Lose 74%
15Bloomfield 3-3 B8vs Nutley · Win 85% · Lose 61%
15Perth Amboy 5-1 A8at New Providence · Win Lock · Lose 80%
In trouble 11 Under 30%: need wins and help.
17Livingston 3-3 vs Barringer · Win 25% · Lose 7%
18Passaic 2-4 Head-to-head ↑at Eastside · Win 5% · Lose Eliminated
19Clifton 2-3 vs Orange · Win 4% · Lose Eliminated
20Linden 2-3 vs Colonia · Win 30% · Lose 6%
21Montclair 2-4 vs East Orange · Win 30% · Lose 1%
22Westfield 1-5 at Ridge · Win 54% · Lose 10%
23Franklin 1-5 vs Edison · Win 13% · Lose 2%
25Morristown 0-6 at Mount Olive · Win 4% · Lose Eliminated
26Barringer 1-4 at Livingston · Win Eliminated · Lose Eliminated
27Columbia 0-6 at Snyder · Win Eliminated · Lose Eliminated
28Eastside 2-4 vs Passaic · Win Eliminated · Lose Eliminated
Out 1 Can no longer make it, or all but.
More detail: every proof, seeding lock and rooting guide (for coaches)
This week's clinch watch 0 This week's clinch watchTeams that clinch a playoff spot with a win this week, or with a win plus one other result. Found by fixing the win and searching this week's other games for the smallest set that proves the spot.Show the work →
This week's clinch watch
Teams that clinch a playoff spot with a win this week, or with a win plus one other result. Found by fixing the win and searching this week's other games for the smallest set that proves the spot.Show the work →Nobody clinches with a win alone, or a win plus one other result, this week.
Clinched 3 Clinched a playoff spotNo combination of the remaining results can leave the team outside the top 16. "Clinched" is printed only when that is proved; "virtually clinched" means every simulated season and a search for a counterexample agree, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →
Clinched a playoff spot
No combination of the remaining results can leave the team outside the top 16. "Clinched" is printed only when that is proved; "virtually clinched" means every simulated season and a search for a counterexample agree, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →- 1RamapoRamapo has virtually clinched a playoff spot (>99.9%). 20,000 of 20,000 simulated seasons keep them there and a 500-try search found no scenario that does not; not yet proved.
- 2West OrangeWest Orange has virtually clinched a playoff spot (>99.9%). 20,000 of 20,000 simulated seasons keep them there and a 500-try search found no scenario that does not; not yet proved.
- 3ElizabethElizabeth has virtually clinched a playoff spot (>99.9%). 20,000 of 20,000 simulated seasons keep them there and a 500-try search found no scenario that does not; not yet proved.
On the bubble 9 Chance of a playoff spotShare of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →
Chance of a playoff spot
Share of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →- 12RidgewoodRidgewood is in the hunt for a playoff spot (99.3%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 13BayonneBayonne is in the hunt for a playoff spot (95%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 14PlainfieldPlainfield is in the hunt for a playoff spot (79%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 15BloomfieldBloomfield is in the hunt for a playoff spot (75%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 15Perth AmboyPerth Amboy is in the hunt for a playoff spot (84%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 17LivingstonLivingston is in the hunt for a playoff spot (22%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 18PassaicPassaic is in the hunt for a playoff spot (3%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 19CliftonClifton is in the hunt for a playoff spot (4%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 20LindenLinden is in the hunt for a playoff spot (15%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
Eliminated 1 Eliminated from the playoffsNo combination of the remaining results can put the team in the top 16, or it cannot reach two wins against NJSIAA members. "Virtually eliminated" means no simulated season and no search found a way in, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →
Eliminated from the playoffs
No combination of the remaining results can put the team in the top 16, or it cannot reach two wins against NJSIAA members. "Virtually eliminated" means no simulated season and no search found a way in, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →- 24JP StevensJP Stevens is virtually eliminated from a playoff spot (<0.1%). 0 of 20,000 simulated seasons get them there and a 500-try search found no scenario that does; not yet proved.
JP StevensStill in the hunt 15 Chance of a playoff spotShare of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →
Chance of a playoff spot
Share of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →- 4PiscatawayPiscataway is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 5Bridgewater-RaritanBridgewater-Raritan is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 6Passaic TechPassaic Tech is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 7PhillipsburgPhillipsburg is in the hunt for a playoff spot (99.6%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 8East OrangeEast Orange is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 9IrvingtonIrvington is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 10UnionUnion is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 11Union CityUnion City is in the hunt for a playoff spot (98%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 21MontclairMontclair is in the hunt for a playoff spot (3%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 22WestfieldWestfield is in the hunt for a playoff spot (16%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 23FranklinFranklin is in the hunt for a playoff spot (7%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 25MorristownMorristown is in the hunt for a playoff spot (0.4%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 26BarringerBarringer is in the hunt for a playoff spot (0.1%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 27ColumbiaColumbia is in the hunt for a playoff spot (<0.1%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 28EastsideEastside is in the hunt for a playoff spot (<0.1%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
Rooting guides 0 This week's rooting guideThe fewest results this week that, with the team's own result, prove the target. Found by fixing the team's win (or any result), adding this week's other games one at a time by how much each lifts the team's worst-case rank until the target is proved, then dropping any game the proof no longer needs. Every listed result must happen; other routes may exist.Show the work →
This week's rooting guide
The fewest results this week that, with the team's own result, prove the target. Found by fixing the team's win (or any result), adding this week's other games one at a time by how much each lifts the team's worst-case rank until the target is proved, then dropping any game the proof no longer needs. Every listed result must happen; other routes may exist.Show the work →No team needs help this week: everything still open is decided by more than one weekend.
How the chances work
We play out the rest of the season 20,000 times with our ratings. Clinched and Out are printed only when they are proven.
How qualifying works →If it ended today
The same seeds as the Standings and every team page, so the three never disagree. A1 means Section A, seed 1.
Full bracket →Checked every week
Our Strength Index is checked against the official NJSIAA list each week.
See the check →