Playoff Picture · Through Week 7 · odds updated Sun 8:30 PM· Cutoff Oct 24 · 2025 season
North Group 5
28 public schools. The top 16 eligible teams make the playoffs, seeded into two sections of eight. Here is where the race stands if the season ended today.
16 of 28 get in
The field
14locked in
0in good shape
9need help
5eliminated
Cut lineLivingston is #16 (50% to make it). Franklin is first out (28%).
Game to watchLivingston at Bloomfield, Thu. 171 points of playoff odds ride on it.
Top seedsWest Orange (6-1, Section A) · Elizabeth (8-0, Section B)
EliminatedBarringer, Clifton, Columbia, Eastside, JP Stevens.
What changedPhillipsburg climbed 4 to No. 5. Irvington fell 4 to No. 9. Into the top 16: Bloomfield, Livingston. Out of it: Plainfield, Linden. Since Week 6.
If it ended today
First round · higher seed hosts · % = chance to make it, odds updated Sun 8:30 PMSection ANo. 1 overall's side
West Orange
Livingston
Bridgewater-Raritan
Irvington
Phillipsburg
Union
Piscataway
RidgewoodSection BNo. 2 overall's side
Elizabeth
Bloomfield
Passaic Tech
Bayonne
East Orange
Perth Amboy
Ramapo
Union CityFirst round, higher seed hosts. % is the chance to make the playoffs. 2026 seeding snakes the top 16 between the two sections (1, 4, 5, 8… and 2, 3, 6, 7…). Section names come with the NJSIAA alignment lists. The bracket locks after the Oct 24 cutoff.
Games that matter
Week 8Fri 6:00 PM100 pts at stake
Perth AmboyWin Lock · Lose Lock
at South Plainfield North 3Win Lock · Lose Eliminated
Win / Lose: each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins or loses this week. Points at stake add up both teams' swings. All Week 8 games →
The race
Chance to make the playoffs · click a chance for whyTap a chance for why| Rank | Team · seed if it ended today | Chance | This week | If they win | If they lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinched 13 Proven: no combination of results keeps them out. | |||||
| 1 | West Orange 6-1 A1 | vs Montclair | – | – | |
| 2 | Elizabeth 8-0 B1 | vs Somerville | – | – | |
| 3 | Ramapo 4-3 B2 | at Wayne Valley | – | – | |
| 4 | Piscataway 7-1 A2 | at Sayreville | – | – | |
| 5 | Phillipsburg 5-2 A3 | vs Hunterdon Central | – | – | |
| 6 | East Orange 5-2 B3 | vs Newark Central | – | – | |
| 7 | Passaic Tech 5-3 B4 | vs Columbia | – | – | |
| 8 | Bridgewater-Raritan 6-2 A4 | vs Watchung Hills | – | – | |
| 9 | Irvington 5-3 A5 | at Seton Hall Prep | – | – | |
| 10 | Bayonne 5-3 B5 | vs Union City | – | – | |
| 11 | Perth Amboy 6-2 B6 | at South Plainfield | – | – | |
| 12 | Union 5-3 A6 | at Linden | – | – | |
| 14 | Union City 4-4 B7 | at Bayonne | – | – | |
| Near lock 1 Get in 90% of the time or more. | |||||
| 12 | Ridgewood 4-3 A7 | at Passaic | Lock | 73% | |
| Work to do 3 Between 30% and 60%: the cut line. | |||||
| 15 | Bloomfield 3-5 B8 | vs Livingston | 95% | Eliminated | |
| 16 | Livingston 4-4 A8 | at Bloomfield | 96% | 20% | |
| 18 | Plainfield 2-6 | at Westfield | 57% | Eliminated | |
| In trouble 6 Under 30%: need wins and help. | |||||
| 16 | Franklin 3-5 | at Woodbridge | Lock | 4% | |
| 19 | Linden 3-4 | vs Union | Lock | Eliminated | |
| 20 | Morristown 1-7 | at Randolph | 9% | Eliminated | |
| 21 | Passaic 3-5 | vs Ridgewood | 84% | Eliminated | |
| 22 | Westfield 1-7 | vs Plainfield | Eliminated | Eliminated | |
| 24 | Montclair 2-6 | at West Orange | 77% | Eliminated | |
| Out 5 Can no longer make it, or all but. | |||||
Plainfield
Franklin
Linden
Morristown
Passaic
Westfield
MontclairClinched 13 Proven: no combination of results keeps them out.
1West Orange 6-1 A1vs Montclair
2Elizabeth 8-0 B1vs Somerville
3Ramapo 4-3 B2at Wayne Valley
4Piscataway 7-1 A2at Sayreville
5Phillipsburg 5-2 A3vs Hunterdon Central
6East Orange 5-2 B3vs Newark Central
7Passaic Tech 5-3 B4vs Columbia
8Bridgewater-Raritan 6-2 A4vs Watchung Hills
9Irvington 5-3 A5at Seton Hall Prep
10Bayonne 5-3 B5vs Union City
11Perth Amboy 6-2 B6at South Plainfield
12Union 5-3 A6at Linden
14Union City 4-4 B7at Bayonne
Near lock 1 Get in 90% of the time or more.
12Ridgewood 4-3 A7at Passaic · Win Lock · Lose 73%
Work to do 3 Between 30% and 60%: the cut line.
15Bloomfield 3-5 B8vs Livingston · Win 95% · Lose Eliminated
16Livingston 4-4 A8at Bloomfield · Win 96% · Lose 20%
18Plainfield 2-6 at Westfield · Win 57% · Lose Eliminated
In trouble 6 Under 30%: need wins and help.
16Franklin 3-5 at Woodbridge · Win Lock · Lose 4%
19Linden 3-4 vs Union · Win Lock · Lose Eliminated
20Morristown 1-7 at Randolph · Win 9% · Lose Eliminated
21Passaic 3-5 vs Ridgewood · Win 84% · Lose Eliminated
22Westfield 1-7 vs Plainfield · Win Eliminated · Lose Eliminated
24Montclair 2-6 at West Orange · Win 77% · Lose Eliminated
Out 5 Can no longer make it, or all but.
More detail: every proof, seeding lock and rooting guide (for coaches)
This week's clinch watch 4 This week's clinch watchTeams that clinch a playoff spot with a win this week, or with a win plus one other result. Found by fixing the win and searching this week's other games for the smallest set that proves the spot.Show the work →
This week's clinch watch
Teams that clinch a playoff spot with a win this week, or with a win plus one other result. Found by fixing the win and searching this week's other games for the smallest set that proves the spot.Show the work →- 12RidgewoodRidgewood clinches a playoff spot with a win over Passaic.
- 16FranklinFranklin clinches a playoff spot with a win over Woodbridge and a Bloomfield win over Livingston.
- 16LivingstonLivingston clinches a playoff spot with a win over Bloomfield and a Woodbridge win over Franklin.
- 19LindenLinden clinches a playoff spot with a win over Union and a Bloomfield win over Livingston.
Clinched 13 Clinched a playoff spotNo combination of the remaining results can leave the team outside the top 16. "Clinched" is printed only when that is proved; "virtually clinched" means every simulated season and a search for a counterexample agree, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →
Clinched a playoff spot
No combination of the remaining results can leave the team outside the top 16. "Clinched" is printed only when that is proved; "virtually clinched" means every simulated season and a search for a counterexample agree, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →- 1West Orange since Wk 0West Orange has clinched a playoff spot. No remaining scenario eliminates them (worst case: 9th).
- 2Elizabeth since Wk 0Elizabeth has clinched a playoff spot. No remaining scenario eliminates them (worst case: 9th).
- 3Ramapo since Wk 0Ramapo has clinched a playoff spot. No remaining scenario eliminates them (worst case: 7th).
- 4Piscataway since Wk 0Piscataway has clinched a playoff spot. No remaining scenario eliminates them (worst case: 9th).
- 5Phillipsburg since Wk 0Phillipsburg has clinched a playoff spot. No remaining scenario eliminates them (worst case: 10th).
- 6East Orange since Wk 0East Orange has clinched a playoff spot. No remaining scenario eliminates them (worst case: 10th).
- 7Passaic Tech since Wk 0Passaic Tech has clinched a playoff spot. No remaining scenario eliminates them (worst case: 10th).
- 8Bridgewater-Raritan since Wk 0Bridgewater-Raritan has clinched a playoff spot. No remaining scenario eliminates them (worst case: 10th).
- 9Irvington since Wk 0Irvington has clinched a playoff spot. No remaining scenario eliminates them (worst case: 10th).
- 10Bayonne since Wk 0Bayonne has clinched a playoff spot. No remaining scenario eliminates them (worst case: 14th).
- 11Perth Amboy since Wk 0Perth Amboy has clinched a playoff spot. No remaining scenario eliminates them (every combination of the 21 remaining games checked).
- 12Union since Wk 0Union has clinched a playoff spot. No remaining scenario eliminates them (every combination of the 21 remaining games checked).
- 14Union City since Wk 0Union City has clinched a playoff spot. No remaining scenario eliminates them (every combination of the 21 remaining games checked).
On the bubble 7 Chance of a playoff spotShare of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →
Chance of a playoff spot
Share of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →- 12RidgewoodRidgewood is in the hunt for a playoff spot (99%). Can finish anywhere from 10th to 23rd.
- 15BloomfieldBloomfield is in the hunt for a playoff spot (56%). Can finish anywhere from 11th to 26th.
- 16FranklinFranklin is in the hunt for a playoff spot (28%). Can finish anywhere from 11th to 26th.
- 16LivingstonLivingston is in the hunt for a playoff spot (50%). Can finish anywhere from 11th to 26th.
- 18PlainfieldPlainfield is in the hunt for a playoff spot (37%). Can finish anywhere from 14th to 26th.
- 19LindenLinden is in the hunt for a playoff spot (19%). Can finish anywhere from 11th to 26th.
- 20MorristownMorristown is in the hunt for a playoff spot (6%). Could still finish as high as 14th, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
Eliminated 5 Eliminated from the playoffsNo combination of the remaining results can put the team in the top 16, or it cannot reach two wins against NJSIAA members. "Virtually eliminated" means no simulated season and no search found a way in, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →
Eliminated from the playoffs
No combination of the remaining results can put the team in the top 16, or it cannot reach two wins against NJSIAA members. "Virtually eliminated" means no simulated season and no search found a way in, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →- 23Clifton since Wk 0Clifton is eliminated from a playoff spot. No remaining scenario gets them there (every combination of the 21 remaining games checked).
- 25Columbia since Wk 0Columbia is eliminated from a playoff spot. No remaining scenario gets them there (every combination of the 21 remaining games checked).
- 26Barringer since Wk 0Barringer is eliminated from a playoff spot. No remaining scenario gets them there (every combination of the 21 remaining games checked).
- 27JP Stevens since Wk 0JP Stevens is eliminated from a playoff spot. No remaining scenario gets them there (best case: 22nd).
- 28Eastside since Wk 0Eastside is eliminated from a playoff spot. No remaining scenario gets them there (best case: 23rd).
Clifton
Columbia
Barringer
JP Stevens
EastsideStill in the hunt 3 Chance of a playoff spotShare of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →
Chance of a playoff spot
Share of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →- 21PassaicPassaic is in the hunt for a playoff spot (5%). Can finish anywhere from 12th to 26th.
- 22WestfieldWestfield is in the hunt for a playoff spot (<0.1%). Could still finish as high as 14th, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 24MontclairMontclair is in the hunt for a playoff spot (0.5%). Can finish anywhere from 12th to 26th.
Rooting guides 20 This week's rooting guideThe fewest results this week that, with the team's own result, prove the target. Found by fixing the team's win (or any result), adding this week's other games one at a time by how much each lifts the team's worst-case rank until the target is proved, then dropping any game the proof no longer needs. Every listed result must happen; other routes may exist.Show the work →
This week's rooting guide
The fewest results this week that, with the team's own result, prove the target. Found by fixing the team's win (or any result), adding this week's other games one at a time by how much each lifts the team's worst-case rank until the target is proved, then dropping any game the proof no longer needs. Every listed result must happen; other routes may exist.Show the work →- 1West OrangeIf West Orange beats Montclair
- Root for Somerville over Elizabeth (Fri, Oct 23)
- Root for Sayreville over Piscataway (Fri, Oct 23)
Regardless of West Orange's result- Root for Hunterdon Central over Phillipsburg (Fri, Oct 23)
- Root for Newark Central over East Orange (Sat, Oct 24)
- Root for Sayreville over Piscataway (Fri, Oct 23)
- Root for Somerville over Elizabeth (Fri, Oct 23)
Elimination watchIf West Orange loses to Montclair - 2ElizabethIf Elizabeth beats Somerville
- Root for Montclair over West Orange (Fri, Oct 23)
Elimination watchIf Elizabeth loses to Somerville- Ramapo beats Wayne Valley (Fri, Oct 23)
- 3RamapoElimination watchIf Ramapo loses to Wayne Valley
- 4PiscatawayIf Piscataway beats Sayreville
- Root for Somerville over Elizabeth (Fri, Oct 23)
Elimination watchIf Piscataway loses to SayrevilleA loss alone puts them out.
- 5PhillipsburgIf Phillipsburg beats Hunterdon Central
A win alone does it.
Regardless of Phillipsburg's result- Root for Watchung Hills over Bridgewater-Raritan (Fri, Oct 23)
- 5PhillipsburgElimination watchIf Phillipsburg loses to Hunterdon Central
A loss alone puts them out.
- 6East OrangeIf East Orange beats Newark Central
A win alone does it.
Regardless of East Orange's result- Root for Watchung Hills over Bridgewater-Raritan (Fri, Oct 23)
- 6East OrangeElimination watchIf East Orange loses to Newark Central
A loss alone puts them out.
- 7Passaic TechIf Passaic Tech beats Columbia
A win alone does it.
Regardless of Passaic Tech's result- Root for South Plainfield over Perth Amboy (Fri, Oct 23)
- Root for Watchung Hills over Bridgewater-Raritan (Fri, Oct 23)
Elimination watchIf Passaic Tech loses to Columbia - 8Bridgewater-RaritanIf Bridgewater-Raritan beats Watchung Hills
- Root for Columbia over Passaic Tech (Thu, Oct 22)
Elimination watchIf Bridgewater-Raritan loses to Watchung Hills - 9IrvingtonIf Irvington beats Seton Hall Prep
- Root for Columbia over Passaic Tech (Thu, Oct 22)
- 11Perth AmboyElimination watchIf Perth Amboy loses to South Plainfield
A loss alone puts them out.
- 12RidgewoodIf Ridgewood beats Passaic
A win alone does it.
Regardless of Ridgewood's result- Root for Woodbridge over Franklin (Fri, Oct 23)
- Root for Union over Linden (Fri, Oct 23)
- 15BloomfieldIf Bloomfield beats Livingston
- Root for West Orange over Montclair (Fri, Oct 23)
- Root for Woodbridge over Franklin (Fri, Oct 23)
Elimination watchIf Bloomfield loses to Livingston- Passaic beats Ridgewood (Fri, Oct 23)
- 16FranklinIf Franklin beats Woodbridge
- Root for Bloomfield over Livingston (Thu, Oct 22)
Elimination watchIf Franklin loses to Woodbridge - 16LivingstonIf Livingston beats Bloomfield
- Root for Woodbridge over Franklin (Fri, Oct 23)
Elimination watchIf Livingston loses to Bloomfield- Franklin beats Woodbridge (Fri, Oct 23)
- 18PlainfieldIf Plainfield beats Westfield
- Root for Ridgewood over Passaic (Fri, Oct 23)
- Root for West Orange over Montclair (Fri, Oct 23)
- Root for Union over Linden (Fri, Oct 23)
- Root for Woodbridge over Franklin (Fri, Oct 23)
Elimination watchIf Plainfield loses to WestfieldA loss alone puts them out.
- 19LindenIf Linden beats Union
- Root for Bloomfield over Livingston (Thu, Oct 22)
Elimination watchIf Linden loses to Union - 20MorristownElimination watchIf Morristown loses to Randolph
A loss alone puts them out.
- 21PassaicIf Passaic beats Ridgewood
- Root for Woodbridge over Franklin (Fri, Oct 23)
- Root for Union over Linden (Fri, Oct 23)
Elimination watchIf Passaic loses to RidgewoodA loss alone puts them out.
- 22WestfieldElimination watchIf Westfield loses to Plainfield
A loss alone puts them out.
- 24MontclairIf Montclair beats West Orange
- Root for Ridgewood over Passaic (Fri, Oct 23)
- Root for Livingston over Bloomfield (Thu, Oct 22)
- Root for Woodbridge over Franklin (Fri, Oct 23)
- Root for Hackensack over Clifton (Fri, Oct 23)
- Root for Union over Linden (Fri, Oct 23)
Elimination watchIf Montclair loses to West OrangeA loss alone puts them out.
How the chances work
We play out the rest of the season 20,000 times with our ratings. Clinched and Out are printed only when they are proven.
How qualifying works →If it ended today
The same seeds as the Standings and every team page, so the three never disagree. A1 means Section A, seed 1.
Full bracket →Checked every week
Our Strength Index is checked against the official NJSIAA list each week.
See the check →