Playoff Picture · Through Week 3· Cutoff Oct 24 · 2025 season
South Group 1
31 public schools. The top 16 eligible teams make the playoffs, seeded into two sections of eight. Here is where the race stands if the season ended today.
16 of 31 get in
The field
0in
15in good shape
16need help
0eliminated
Cut lineOnly 15 teams have the two NJSIAA wins needed so far, so one top seed gets a first-round bye today.
Top seedsSchalick (4-0, Section A) · Paulsboro (3-1, Section B)
EliminatedNobody yet.
What changedAudubon climbed 15 to No. 12. Woodbury fell 9 to No. 14. Into the top 16: Woodstown, New Egypt, Keansburg. Since Week 2.
If it ended today
First round · higher seed hosts · % = chance to make itSection ANo. 1 overall's side
Schalick8Bye
Clayton
Highland Park
Penns Grove
Manville
Delaware Valley
New EgyptSection BNo. 2 overall's side
Paulsboro
Keansburg
Gateway
Pt. Pleasant Beach
Pennsville
Woodbury
Woodstown
South HunterdonFirst round, higher seed hosts. % is the chance to make the playoffs. 2026 seeding snakes the top 16 between the two sections (1, 4, 5, 8… and 2, 3, 6, 7…). Section names come with the NJSIAA alignment lists. The bracket locks after the Oct 24 cutoff.
Games that matter
Week 4No games scheduled.
Games already played show the final score. Win / Lose: each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins or loses this week. Points at stake add up both teams' swings. All Week 4 games →
The race
Chance to make the playoffs · click a chance for whyTap a chance for why| Rank | Team · seed if it ended today | Chance | This week | If they win | If they lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near lock 13 Get in 90% of the time or more. | |||||
| 1 | Schalick 4-0 A1 | at Paulsboro | 99% | 99% | |
| 2 | Paulsboro 3-1 B1 | vs Schalick | 99% | 99% | |
| 3 | Woodstown 2-2 B2 | vs Buena | 99% | 95% | |
| 4 | Delaware Valley 3-1 A2 | vs Bernards | 99% | 99% | |
| 5 | Penns Grove 3-0 A3 | at Woodbury | 99% | 96% | |
| 6 | Salem 1-3 Needs 2 NJ wins | vs Overbrook | 99% | 95% | |
| 6 | Pennsville 2-2 B3 | vs Burlington City | 99% | 84% | |
| 9 | Clayton 3-1 A4 | No game this week | – | – | |
| 9 | Highland Park 4-0 A5 | vs South River | 95% | 75% | |
| 11 | Shore 1-3 Needs 2 NJ wins | vs Freehold Twp. | 99% | 88% | |
| 12 | Audubon 1-2 Needs 2 NJ wins | at Gateway | 99% | 83% | |
| 13 | Pt. Pleasant Beach 3-1 B5 | vs Freehold Boro | 94% | 66% | |
| 15 | Manville 3-1 A6 | at South Hunterdon | 99% | 84% | |
| In good shape 2 Between 60% and 90%. | |||||
| 8 | Gateway 2-2 B4 | vs Audubon | 99% | 82% | |
| 14 | Woodbury 2-2 B6 | vs Penns Grove | 94% | 57% | |
| Work to do 2 Between 30% and 60%: the cut line. | |||||
| 16 | Burlington City 0-4 Needs 2 NJ wins | at Pennsville | 79% | 28% | |
| 17 | Maple Shade 1-3 | vs Camden Catholic | 62% | 28% | |
| In trouble 14 Under 30%: need wins and help. | |||||
| 18 | Florence 1-2 | vs Riverside | 22% | 3% | |
| 19 | New Egypt 2-2 A7 | vs Lakewood | 20% | 5% | |
| 20 | Pitman 1-3 | No game this week | – | – | |
| 21 | South Hunterdon 3-1 B7 | vs Manville | 67% | 6% | |
| 22 | Asbury Park 0-4 | at Monmouth | 41% | 3% | |
| 22 | Haddon Twp. 1-2 | at Middle Twp. | 8% | Under 1% | |
| 24 | Keyport 1-2 | vs Keansburg | 18% | 2% | |
| 25 | Riverside 1-3 | at Florence | 31% | 7% | |
| 26 | Buena 1-3 | at Woodstown | 53% | 14% | |
| 27 | Keansburg 2-2 B8 | at Keyport | 17% | 3% | |
| 28 | Bound Brook 0-4 | at Belvidere | 4% | Under 1% | |
| 28 | Wildwood 1-3 | vs Gloucester Catholic | Under 1% | Under 1% | |
| 30 | Palmyra 1-2 | vs Lindenwold | 3% | Under 1% | |
| 31 | KIPP Cooper Norcross 0-4 | at Bordentown | 22% | 2% | |
Salem
Shore
Audubon
Burlington City
Maple Shade
Florence
Pitman
Asbury Park
Haddon Twp.
Keyport
Riverside
Buena
Bound Brook
Wildwood
Palmyra
KIPP Cooper NorcrossNear lock 13 Get in 90% of the time or more.
1Schalick 4-0 A1at Paulsboro · Win 99% · Lose 99%
2Paulsboro 3-1 B1vs Schalick · Win 99% · Lose 99%
3Woodstown 2-2 B2vs Buena · Win 99% · Lose 95%
4Delaware Valley 3-1 A2vs Bernards · Win 99% · Lose 99%
5Penns Grove 3-0 A3at Woodbury · Win 99% · Lose 96%
6Salem 1-3 Needs 2 NJ winsvs Overbrook · Win 99% · Lose 95%
6Pennsville 2-2 B3vs Burlington City · Win 99% · Lose 84%
9Clayton 3-1 A4No game this week
9Highland Park 4-0 A5vs South River · Win 95% · Lose 75%
11Shore 1-3 Needs 2 NJ winsvs Freehold Twp. · Win 99% · Lose 88%
12Audubon 1-2 Needs 2 NJ winsat Gateway · Win 99% · Lose 83%
13Pt. Pleasant Beach 3-1 B5vs Freehold Boro · Win 94% · Lose 66%
15Manville 3-1 A6at South Hunterdon · Win 99% · Lose 84%
In good shape 2 Between 60% and 90%.
8Gateway 2-2 B4vs Audubon · Win 99% · Lose 82%
14Woodbury 2-2 B6vs Penns Grove · Win 94% · Lose 57%
Work to do 2 Between 30% and 60%: the cut line.
16Burlington City 0-4 Needs 2 NJ winsat Pennsville · Win 79% · Lose 28%
17Maple Shade 1-3 vs Camden Catholic · Win 62% · Lose 28%
In trouble 14 Under 30%: need wins and help.
18Florence 1-2 vs Riverside · Win 22% · Lose 3%
19New Egypt 2-2 A7vs Lakewood · Win 20% · Lose 5%
20Pitman 1-3 No game this week
21South Hunterdon 3-1 B7vs Manville · Win 67% · Lose 6%
22Asbury Park 0-4 at Monmouth · Win 41% · Lose 3%
22Haddon Twp. 1-2 at Middle Twp. · Win 8% · Lose Under 1%
24Keyport 1-2 vs Keansburg · Win 18% · Lose 2%
25Riverside 1-3 at Florence · Win 31% · Lose 7%
26Buena 1-3 at Woodstown · Win 53% · Lose 14%
27Keansburg 2-2 B8at Keyport · Win 17% · Lose 3%
28Bound Brook 0-4 at Belvidere · Win 4% · Lose Under 1%
28Wildwood 1-3 vs Gloucester Catholic · Win Under 1% · Lose Under 1%
30Palmyra 1-2 vs Lindenwold · Win 3% · Lose Under 1%
31KIPP Cooper Norcross 0-4 at Bordentown · Win 22% · Lose 2%
More detail: every proof, seeding lock and rooting guide (for coaches)
This week's clinch watch 0 This week's clinch watchTeams that clinch a playoff spot with a win this week, or with a win plus one other result. Found by fixing the win and searching this week's other games for the smallest set that proves the spot.Show the work →
This week's clinch watch
Teams that clinch a playoff spot with a win this week, or with a win plus one other result. Found by fixing the win and searching this week's other games for the smallest set that proves the spot.Show the work →Nobody clinches with a win alone, or a win plus one other result, this week.
Clinched 0 Clinched a playoff spotNo combination of the remaining results can leave the team outside the top 16. "Clinched" is printed only when that is proved; "virtually clinched" means every simulated season and a search for a counterexample agree, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →
Clinched a playoff spot
No combination of the remaining results can leave the team outside the top 16. "Clinched" is printed only when that is proved; "virtually clinched" means every simulated season and a search for a counterexample agree, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →No team has clinched a playoff spot yet.
On the bubble 9 Chance of a playoff spotShare of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →
Chance of a playoff spot
Share of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →- 12AudubonAudubon is in the hunt for a playoff spot (96%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 13Pt. Pleasant BeachPt. Pleasant Beach is in the hunt for a playoff spot (93%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 31st.
- 14WoodburyWoodbury is in the hunt for a playoff spot (63%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 31st.
- 15ManvilleManville is in the hunt for a playoff spot (98%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 31st.
- 16Burlington CityBurlington City is in the hunt for a playoff spot (35%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 17Maple ShadeMaple Shade is in the hunt for a playoff spot (40%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 18FlorenceFlorence is in the hunt for a playoff spot (8%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 19New EgyptNew Egypt is in the hunt for a playoff spot (19%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 31st.
- 20PitmanPitman is in the hunt for a playoff spot (2%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
Eliminated 0 Eliminated from the playoffsNo combination of the remaining results can put the team in the top 16, or it cannot reach two wins against NJSIAA members. "Virtually eliminated" means no simulated season and no search found a way in, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →
Eliminated from the playoffs
No combination of the remaining results can put the team in the top 16, or it cannot reach two wins against NJSIAA members. "Virtually eliminated" means no simulated season and no search found a way in, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →Nobody is out yet.
Still in the hunt 22 Chance of a playoff spotShare of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →
Chance of a playoff spot
Share of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →- 1SchalickSchalick is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 31st.
- 2PaulsboroPaulsboro is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 31st.
- 3WoodstownWoodstown is in the hunt for a playoff spot (99%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 31st.
- 4Delaware ValleyDelaware Valley is in the hunt for a playoff spot (99%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 31st.
- 5Penns GrovePenns Grove is in the hunt for a playoff spot (99%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 31st.
- 6PennsvillePennsville is in the hunt for a playoff spot (96%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 31st.
- 6SalemSalem is in the hunt for a playoff spot (97%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 8GatewayGateway is in the hunt for a playoff spot (84%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 31st.
- 9ClaytonClayton is in the hunt for a playoff spot (97%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 31st.
- 9Highland ParkHighland Park is in the hunt for a playoff spot (94%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 31st.
- 11ShoreShore is in the hunt for a playoff spot (94%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 21South HunterdonSouth Hunterdon is in the hunt for a playoff spot (10%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 31st.
- 22Asbury ParkAsbury Park is in the hunt for a playoff spot (3%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 22Haddon Twp.Haddon Twp. is in the hunt for a playoff spot (1%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 24KeyportKeyport is in the hunt for a playoff spot (10%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 25RiversideRiverside is in the hunt for a playoff spot (25%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 26BuenaBuena is in the hunt for a playoff spot (22%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 27KeansburgKeansburg is in the hunt for a playoff spot (11%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 31st.
- 28Bound BrookBound Brook is in the hunt for a playoff spot (0.5%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 28WildwoodWildwood is in the hunt for a playoff spot (<0.1%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 30PalmyraPalmyra is in the hunt for a playoff spot (2%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 31KIPP Cooper NorcrossKIPP Cooper Norcross is in the hunt for a playoff spot (3%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
Rooting guides 0 This week's rooting guideThe fewest results this week that, with the team's own result, prove the target. Found by fixing the team's win (or any result), adding this week's other games one at a time by how much each lifts the team's worst-case rank until the target is proved, then dropping any game the proof no longer needs. Every listed result must happen; other routes may exist.Show the work →
This week's rooting guide
The fewest results this week that, with the team's own result, prove the target. Found by fixing the team's win (or any result), adding this week's other games one at a time by how much each lifts the team's worst-case rank until the target is proved, then dropping any game the proof no longer needs. Every listed result must happen; other routes may exist.Show the work →No team needs help this week: everything still open is decided by more than one weekend.
How the chances work
We play out the rest of the season 20,000 times with our ratings. Clinched and Out are printed only when they are proven.
How qualifying works →If it ended today
The same seeds as the Standings and every team page, so the three never disagree. A1 means Section A, seed 1.
Full bracket →Checked every week
Our Strength Index is checked against the official NJSIAA list each week.
See the check →